La Niña: Salvation or Devastation
Summer 2024 was the hottest year on record yet, which means all eyes are on the upcoming months to see if this trend will continue. Will the world face more brutal temperatures, droughts, and wildfires, or will the long-awaited phenomenon, La Niña, bring much-needed relief?La Niña is a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that occurs when colder subsurface waters build up in the tropical Pacific. It is the counterpart to El Niño, which is responsible for increased storm activity and devastating hurricanes,by changes in vertical wind shear. La Niña, by contrast, typically brings cooler global temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, though its effects are highly variable across regions.
As of late 2024, La Niña had emerged in the Pacific once again. However, its strength remains weak, with forecasts suggesting only a 55% chance of it persisting through the winter months. This means that while some areas may experience changes in typical weather patterns, La Niña is unlikely to significantly reverse the warming trends driven by climate change. Scientists caution that while La Niña events have historically influenced weather patterns, their intensity and duration have varied or can vary. Some regions might see increased rainfall, while others remain dry, emphasizing the unpredictability of the impact of climate change.
In the Mediterranean region, La Niña's influence can be quite complex. Historically, it has been linked to wetter and cooler winters in southwestern Europe, particularly in Spain and Portugal. Meteorologist Mario Picazo has noted that La Niña years often bring increased snowfall to the Alps, which may benefit winter tourism. However, northern and southeastern Mediterranean countries might not experience the same relief, as La Niña can also bring drier conditions to certain areas. Coastal regions could experience increased storm activity, leading to flooding, while inland areas may continue suffering from prolonged droughts.
Furthermore, the impact of La Niña on living conditions is becoming increasingly evident. In 2023, extreme heat waves resulted in thousands of temperature-related illnesses and deaths across southern Europe, straining healthcare systems and emergency services already stressed by depleted funds. Crops failed due to persistent drought, leading to food shortages and increased prices, disproportionately affecting lower-income communities. Wildfires displaced thousands, destroying homes and livelihoods in Greece, Cyprus, Tunisia and many others. Considering the summer of 2025, even if we take into account the potential cooling effects of La Nina, similar challenges are likely to occur. A weak La Niña means extreme heat waves may occur, although they might be slightly moderated. Governments and humanitarian organizations must remain prepared to protect vulnerable populations, implement cooling centers, and bolster food security measures.
Despite the potential for slightly cooler and wetter conditions in some parts of the Mediterranean, the overall warming trend remains dominant. 2024 has already been confirmed as the warmest year on record, with global temperatures far exceeding the 1991–2020 average. The European climate monitoring agency Copernicus reported that the continent experienced its hottest year, with an average temperature of 10.69°C, which was 1.47 °C above the long-term norm. This extreme heat contributed to prolonged droughts, such as in Morocco, deadly wildfires, and significant agricultural losses in the wheat harvest. Increased ocean temperatures further complicate the situation, as they can intensify storms and alter marine ecosystems, affecting fishing industries and biodiversity.
While La Niña could offer some temporary relief in localized regions, its current weak state is unlikely to counteract the ongoing climate crisis. Policymakers and communities must continue adapting to extreme weather patterns, improving resilience against heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, which are expected to become even more frequent in the years ahead. Governments should implement more robust climate policies, investing in sustainable infrastructure and emergency response systems. Additionally, individuals must take steps to mitigate their carbon footprint, emphasizing the need for collective action in addressing the broader climate crisis.
